In 1974, the United States was reeling from Watergate and the Vietnam War and stuck in a vexing recession. Inflation was out of control and President Gerald Ford was struggling to get control of the country and its economy. A collectible from those days is a "WIN" button, which stood for "Whip Inflation Now" -- a promotional device that the desperate Ford administration ginned up.
At the time, I was fresh out of college, living in Peoria, Ill., and working as an urban planner. One distinct memory I have was passing the downtown office of Peoria Savings with a sign on the window that read "No Home Loans."
A moratorium on home loans -- can you imagine?
Get ready.
In the early 1970s, the housing market had no meaningful secondary mortgage market. When passbooks savings -- which capitalized most mortgages -- shrank, money for home loans dried up.
In 1968, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were re-chartered by Congress as shareholder-owned companies funded solely with private capital raised from investors on Wall Street and around the world. But it was not until the 1980s that they found their footing and their growth mushroomed. Mortgage-backed securities got traction in the early part of this decade with the national push for home ownership. New mortgage instruments were invented to capture global interest in U.S. home loans.
In this period, a secondary market came onto the scene with brute force. By 2005, the size of the market had ballooned to $3 trillion.
And today? It has collapsed. Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are poised for a government bailout. Today, Fannie Mae's stock has tumbled 45 percent and Freddie's has fallen 20 percent. This is after steep declines all week.
So, imagine a return to a housing market without a robust and functional secondary housing market. In other words: a severe credit crunch.
Here are 10 things that I predict will flow from its collapse (many of which have already hit the beleaguered housing market):
1. The capital that exists from direct lenders such as community banks, savings institutions and large commercial banks will fall short of potential demand and focus on bread-and-butter loans, leaving most borrowers out in the cold.
2. Exotic loans of any kind will be completely out of favor, leaving many borrowers and many properties unfundable.
3. Home sellers will become active lenders, but only those who have equity. Seller financing will help some transactions.
4. Second homes, expensive houses and certain types of investment property will be penalized and difficult to fund.
5. Small boutique lenders will enter the business, capitalizing on market voids, funding specialized but secure niches.
6. Investment banks will take care of unleveraged high-net-worth customers, but terms will be unfavorable so this market will further shrink.
7. Sovereign wealth funds are not the solution, because many were burnt on mortgage-backed securities.
8. Those that do lend will revert to back-to-basics underwriting: perfect credit, large down payments, proof of income, personal character and good family upbringing.
9. Housing industry lobbyists will make the mortgage liquidity problem their number one policy issue in the next two years. They will argue that the sky is falling and it is.
10. The trend will keep the housing market starved for capital, prolonging the slump.
Like so many parts of our American culture, the accessibility to unlimited and poorly scrutinized debt helped turn Americans into a sloppy group of consumers, which spawned greedy Wall Streeters, out of control lenders and starry-eyed investors.
By: Brad Inman is founder and publisher of Inman News
Monday, July 14, 2008
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Fed Adopts Plan to Curb Shady Mortgae Practices
Federal Reserve gives home buyers more protection against shady lending practices.
The Federal Reserve has adopted rules to give home buyers more protection from the types of shady lending practices that have contributed to the housing crisis and propelled foreclosures to record highs.
Chairman Ben Bernanke and his central bank colleagues approved a plan Monday that would crack down on dubious lending practices that have hurt many of the riskiest "subprime" borrowers -- people with tarnished credit histories or low incomes.
In that regard, the plan would:
-- bar lenders from making loans without proof of a borrower's income.
-- require lenders to make sure risky borrowers set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance.
-- restrict lenders from penalizing risky borrowers who pay loans off early. Such "prepayment" penalties are banned if the payment can change during the initial four years of the mortgage. In other cases, a penalty can't be imposed in the first two years of the mortgage.
-- prohibit lenders from making a loan without considering a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's value. The borrower need not have to prove that the lender engaged in a "pattern or practice" for this to be deemed a violation. That marks a change -- sought by consumer advocates -- from the Fed's initial proposal and should make it easier for borrowers to lodge a complaint.
"Rates of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have been increasing rapidly lately, imposing large costs on borrowers, their communities and the national economy," Bernanke said.
"Although the high rate of delinquency has a number of causes, it seems clear that unfair or deceptive acts and practices by lenders resulted in the extension of many loans, particularly high-cost loans, that were inappropriate for or misled the borrower," he added.
For all mortgages, the plan would require advertising to contain additional information about rates, monthly payments and other loan features, and it would curtail certain deceptive or misleading advertising practices.
Other practices also would be clamped down on. Lenders, for instance, have to credit a mortgage payment to the homeowner's account on the day it is received. And, brokers and others are forbidden from "coercing or encouraging" an appraiser to misrepresent the value of a home.
Consumer groups initially complained that the new rules are not strong enough. Lenders worry they are too tough, could limit mortgage options for people and made it harder for some to obtain financing.
The new lending rules may not get a test for some time because there are fewer home buyers these days, given all the problems in the housing and credit markets. Also, some of the shady practices -- along with some lenders -- have not survived, felled by the mortgage meltdown.
"Clearly this is closing the barn door after the fact," said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. Yet, she said, "this is a very important move. It absolutely will make a difference going forward."
Much will hinge on effective enforcement.
The plan would apply to new loans made by thousands of lenders, including banks and brokers. It would not cover current loans.
Those different lenders fall under a patchwork of regulators at the federal and state levels. So it will be up to each of these authorities to enforce the new provisions.
Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, the central bank's point person on the new rules, said the Fed's goal was to protect borrowers from unfair or deceptive practices while also not impeding the flow of credit.
The Fed's rules, he said, should "better protect consumers, while preserving their access to credit as they make some of the most important financial decisions of their lives."
By: AP Business Writer Alan Zibel contributed to this report.
The Federal Reserve has adopted rules to give home buyers more protection from the types of shady lending practices that have contributed to the housing crisis and propelled foreclosures to record highs.
Chairman Ben Bernanke and his central bank colleagues approved a plan Monday that would crack down on dubious lending practices that have hurt many of the riskiest "subprime" borrowers -- people with tarnished credit histories or low incomes.
In that regard, the plan would:
-- bar lenders from making loans without proof of a borrower's income.
-- require lenders to make sure risky borrowers set aside money to pay for taxes and insurance.
-- restrict lenders from penalizing risky borrowers who pay loans off early. Such "prepayment" penalties are banned if the payment can change during the initial four years of the mortgage. In other cases, a penalty can't be imposed in the first two years of the mortgage.
-- prohibit lenders from making a loan without considering a borrower's ability to repay a home loan from sources other than the home's value. The borrower need not have to prove that the lender engaged in a "pattern or practice" for this to be deemed a violation. That marks a change -- sought by consumer advocates -- from the Fed's initial proposal and should make it easier for borrowers to lodge a complaint.
"Rates of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures have been increasing rapidly lately, imposing large costs on borrowers, their communities and the national economy," Bernanke said.
"Although the high rate of delinquency has a number of causes, it seems clear that unfair or deceptive acts and practices by lenders resulted in the extension of many loans, particularly high-cost loans, that were inappropriate for or misled the borrower," he added.
For all mortgages, the plan would require advertising to contain additional information about rates, monthly payments and other loan features, and it would curtail certain deceptive or misleading advertising practices.
Other practices also would be clamped down on. Lenders, for instance, have to credit a mortgage payment to the homeowner's account on the day it is received. And, brokers and others are forbidden from "coercing or encouraging" an appraiser to misrepresent the value of a home.
Consumer groups initially complained that the new rules are not strong enough. Lenders worry they are too tough, could limit mortgage options for people and made it harder for some to obtain financing.
The new lending rules may not get a test for some time because there are fewer home buyers these days, given all the problems in the housing and credit markets. Also, some of the shady practices -- along with some lenders -- have not survived, felled by the mortgage meltdown.
"Clearly this is closing the barn door after the fact," said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. Yet, she said, "this is a very important move. It absolutely will make a difference going forward."
Much will hinge on effective enforcement.
The plan would apply to new loans made by thousands of lenders, including banks and brokers. It would not cover current loans.
Those different lenders fall under a patchwork of regulators at the federal and state levels. So it will be up to each of these authorities to enforce the new provisions.
Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, the central bank's point person on the new rules, said the Fed's goal was to protect borrowers from unfair or deceptive practices while also not impeding the flow of credit.
The Fed's rules, he said, should "better protect consumers, while preserving their access to credit as they make some of the most important financial decisions of their lives."
By: AP Business Writer Alan Zibel contributed to this report.
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